Imbonakalo yoRhwebo lweHlabathi kwiSiqingatha sesibini sika-2023: Ukuhambahamba kokungaqiniseki
Iingxelo zamva nje ezivela kumaziko ehlabathi afana neNkomfa yeZizwe eziManyeneyo yoRhwebo noPhuhliso (i-UNCTAD) kunye neWorld Trade Organisation (i-WTO) zibonisa umbono oqaphelekayo ngembono yorhwebo lwehlabathi. Nangona izalathisi ezithile zibonisa ukuba uthungelwano lwehlabathi oluphazamisekileyo ngenxa yobhubhane luya kubuyela esiqhelweni kancinci kancinci, kunye nokuphucuka okubonakalayo ekunqongophaleni kweempahla zabathengi ezingezizo ezibalulekileyo kunye nokulibaziseka kokuhanjiswa, ikota yesibini kulindeleke ukuba ihlangabezane nokuhla kokukhula korhwebo lwehlabathi. Ukujonga phambili, amathuba orhwebo kwisiqingatha sokugqibela sonyaka awathembisi, kunye noqikelelo olubonisa ukuba ukukhula korhwebo lonyaka kunokwehla ngaphantsi kwamanqanaba angaphambili. I-WTO iqikelela ukunyuka okuncinci kwe-1.7% kumthamo worhwebo lwempahla lwehlabathi ngo-2023, okuphantsi kakhulu kunomndilili we-2.6% obonwe kwiminyaka eli-12 edlulileyo.
Xa kujongwa iingozi ezinokuchaphazela urhwebo lwehlabathi kunye neekhonkco zokubonelela kwiinyanga ezizayo, la maziko ehlabathi akhankanyiweyo apha ngasentla akhankanya izinto ezifana nokuhla koqoqosho lwehlabathi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukungazinzi kwemarike yezemali, kunye noxinzelelo lwezopolitiko. UMlawuli-Jikelele we-WTO uNgozi Okonjo-Iweala ugxininise ngexesha lokuthatha kwakhe inxaxheba kwiForam yase-2023 e-Summer Davos e-China ukuba ihlabathi alinakuhlawula iintlobo ezahlukeneyo "zokwahlukana kunye nokuqhawulwa kweenkonzo." Ngokweqikelelo lwe-WTO, ukukhuselwa korhwebo lwexesha elide kunye nokuzimela kwelinye icala kunokubangela ilahleko yoqoqosho lwehlabathi ye-5%, apho amazwe asakhulayo anokulahlekelwa yi-12% ukuya kwi-14%.
Nangona kunjalo, phakathi kwesi siganeko, kukho ithemba elivela eMzantsi Korea. Ngomhla woku-1 kweyeKhala, uMphathiswa wezoRhwebo, iShishini, kunye neMandla ukhuphe idatha ebonisa ukuba uMzantsi Korea ufumene intsalela yorhwebo eyi-$1.13 yeebhiliyoni ngoJuni, nto leyo ephawula intsalela yokuqala yenyanga ukusukela ngoFebruwari 2022. Ukususela ngoMatshi 2022 ukuya kuMeyi 2023, uMzantsi Korea ufumene iinyanga ezili-15 ezilandelelanayo zokunqongophala korhwebo. Izibalo zibonisa ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweMzantsi Korea ngoJuni kufikelele kwi-$54.24 yeebhiliyoni, ukwehla kwe-6.0% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo, ngelixa ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe ngoJuni kufikelele kwi-$53.11 yeebhiliyoni, okubonisa ukwehla kwe-11.7% yonyaka.
Ngaphakathi kurhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe, idatha yorhwebo yaseMzantsi Korea isebenza njengophawu oluphambili loqoqosho lwehlabathi, ilufumana igama elithi "canary kwimigodi yamalahle." Ukongeza, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwaseMzantsi Korea, okuquka ikakhulu iimveliso eziphambili ezifana nee-semiconductors, ii-displays, kunye neoyile ecociweyo, kusebenza njenge-barometer ephambili yemfuno yeshishini lehlabathi kunye netekhnoloji.
Nangona kunjalo, kukho iindlela ezahlukeneyo zokuthetha malunga nokuba ukwehla kwemfuno yeempahla zaseMzantsi Korea kuye kwehla na. Ingakumbi, njengoko sisondela kuJulayi no-Agasti, ezingezizo ezo maxesha orhwebo aphambili ngokwesiko, akukacaci ukuba ukwehla kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuye kwehla na. UMoon Junghiu, ingcali yezoqoqosho kwiBhanki yaseKorea, ucebisa ukuba nangona ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kusenokuba kuzinze okanye kufikelele kwinqanaba, umbuzo obalulekileyo ekufuneka ucingisiswe ngawo kukuba ingaba ukubuyiselwa kwemali kuya kulandela indlela “emile okwe-V” okanye “emile okwe-L”.
URoger, ingcali kwishishini lokuthutha impahla enamava amaninzi eCalifornia, uqikelela ukuba imithamo yokungenisa impahla eMelika iya kunyuka kancinci kancinci ukusuka kumanqanaba ayo aphantsi ngoku ukususela kwikota yesithathu. Okwangoku, uChris Rogers, iNtloko yoPhando lweCandelo loNcedo kwi-S&P Global Market Intelligence, uthi imigudu yokubonelela ngempahla sele iphantse yabuyisela imeko eqhelekileyo ngokwemisebenzi, uluhlu lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo, kunye nexesha lonyaka. Nangona kunjalo, ulumkisa ukuba ukungaqiniseki malunga nemigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente kunye nemingcipheko yomzimba kuyasondela njengoko iinkampani ziqalisa izicwangciso zokuhlaziya imigudu yokubonelela ngempahla ixesha elide, ingakumbi kwisiqingatha sokugqibela sika-2023.
Lilonke, isiqingatha sokuqala sika-2023 sibone ukuchacha kwinani lempahla ethunyelwayo kunye neepateni, kubonakala ngathi kubuyele kwinqanaba lembali. NgoMeyi, ukungeniswa kwempahla elwandle e-US kwiikhonteyina kwehle nge-27% YoY; nangona kunjalo, eli nani laliphezulu nge-2% kuphela kunomndilili weenyanga ezifanayo ukusuka ngo-2016 ukuya ku-2019, ngaphambi kobhubhane. Ngokwembono yempahla esetyenzisiweyo, izinto ezisetyenzisiweyo zidlule kancinci umndilili wekota yokuqala ka-2023, ngelixa izinto ezigqityiweyo zifikelele kwimeko yokulingana. Ukujonga idatha yezemali, kuyacaca ukuba umlinganiselo wempahla ethengiswayo kwiinkampani zefashoni ekhawulezayo uhambelana namanqanaba angaphambi kobhubhane, ngelixa ababoneleli bezixhobo zasekhaya, abathengisi bokwakha, kunye nabavelisi bemveliso ye-elektroniki beqhubeka nokulwa namanqanaba aphezulu empahla esetyenzisiweyo, ebonisa imfuno ecothayo endaweni yendlela entsha yolawulo "efanelekileyo".
Ukuqukumbela, ngokusekelwe kwiingxelo ezikhankanyiweyo ngaphambili kunye nohlalutyo lwedatha, kuyacaca ukuba urhwebo lwehlabathi kunye neekhonkco zokubonelela zisajongene nokungaqiniseki okukhulu kunye nemingcipheko nangona uqoqosho lwehlabathi lubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo emva kwempembelelo yobhubhane. Nangona kunjalo, ukuphumelela kweSouth Korea kwi-extra zorhwebo ngenyanga ngoJuni kubonisa ukuvuselelwa koqoqosho kancinci kancinci kumacandelo athile. Ukuya phambili, imizamo edibeneyo kunye nentsebenziswano ephuculweyo phakathi koorhulumente kunye namashishini kwihlabathi liphela kuyimfuneko ukukhusela izilangazelelo zomntu ngamnye ngelixa kukhuthaza uzinzo kunye nophuhliso oluzinzileyo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Julayi-10-2023