Uphuhliso lwezelizwe luphazamisa ishishini lokuhambisa imithwalo; abanye abathwali bajonga iindlela zoLwandle oluBomvu

Uphuhliso lwezelizwe luphazamisa ishishini lokuhambisa imithwalo; abanye abathwali bajonga iindlela zoLwandle oluBomvu

Kwisiganeko esimangalisayo, iinkampani ezininzi zokuthutha imithwalo zizama ukubuyisela iinkonzo kwindlela yoLwandle oluBomvu, nto leyo ebonisa utshintsho oluvela kwiingozi zezopolitiko ezikhulayo kulo mmandla. Amashishini amaninzi orhwebo lwangaphandle afunde kwimingeni ebangelwe lubhubhane lwe-COVID-19, esebenzisa izixhobo zemali ezifana nokukhusela umngcipheko.

Ngomhla wama-22 kuDisemba, isivumelwano esiphambili seFreight Index (Euro Route) futures, i-EC2404, sifikelele kumda wemihla ngemihla wosuku lwesihlanu olulandelelanayo lokurhweba, sivala ngamanqaku ali-1391.2, ukunyuka kwe-14.99%. Oku kunyuka, okudlule ama-50% kwiintsuku ezintlanu ezidlulileyo, kubangelwe ziziganeko ezingalindelekanga zezopolitiko ezibangela ukunyuka okukhawulezileyo nokukhulu kwamaxabiso okuthutha impahla kwimarike ye-spot, okwathi kamva kwachaphazela imarike yefutures.

Emva kwemarike ngaloo mini inye, iShanghai Shipping Exchange ibhengeze uhlengahlengiso kwiimali zorhwebo zeekhontrakthi zexesha elizayo zeFreight Index (Euro Route) (EC2404, EC2406, EC2408, EC2410, EC2412), eziqala ukusebenza nge-25 kaDisemba, kunye neemali zorhwebo ezimiselwe kwi-0.006% yesixa sentengiselwano kunye neemali zokuvala isikhundla ngaphakathi kosuku kwi-0.012% yesixa sentengiselwano.

Abahlalutyi abaphezulu bathi ukunyuka kwamaxabiso exesha elizayo kwiFreight Index (Euro Route) kubangelwa ziziganeko ezingalindelekanga zezopolitiko ezibangele ukunyuka okukhulu nokukhawulezileyo kwamaxabiso emarike.

Ingxelo yamva nje yeveki yeShanghai Shipping Exchange ibonise ukunyuka okukhulu kweendleko zothutho kwimarike yokuthunyelwa kwempahla e-Asia-Europe ngenxa yezoyikiso zohlaselo oluxhobileyo kummandla woLwandle oluBomvu. Oku kukhokelele ekubeni iinkampani ezinkulu zokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwiikhonteyina ezisebenza kwindlela ye-Asia-Europe zibhengeze ukuphambuka, nto leyo ebangele ukwanda okukhulu kwimigama yokuthunyelwa kwempahla kunye neendleko, kunye nokwehla kokusebenza kakuhle kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwiinqanawa.

Beqonda impembelelo enokubakho kwimarike, iinkampani ezinkulu zeenqwelo-mafutha zinyuse kakhulu iikowuteshini zazo kwiveki ephelileyo. Ngomhla wama-22 kuDisemba, amaxabiso emarike okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ukusuka eShanghai ukuya eYurophu nakwiizibuko ezisisiseko zeMeditera axelwe kwi-$1497 nge-FEU kunye ne-$2054 nge-TEU nganye, nto leyo ebonisa ukunyuka kwe-45.5% kunye ne-30.9%, ngokwahlukeneyo.

Ngomhla wama-25 kuDisemba, abahlalutyi babelane ngengxelo yophando egxininisa ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwimarike. Bagxininise impembelelo yokuphazamiseka koLwandle oluBomvu kwiindlela zokuthutha, nto leyo edala ukunqongophala kwamandla okuthutha kwiindlela zokuthutha zaseAsia-Yurophu kwixesha elifutshane.

Ukuphendula kulindelo lwemarike lokunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla, imithombo evela kwiqonga leYun Qu Na yazise iintatheli ukuba abanye abanini beenqanawa bavule ukubhukisha iinqwelomoya eziya kuLwandle Olubomvu. Ukuhamba kwezi ndiza kucwangciselwe ukuphela kukaDisemba, kunye namaxabiso empahla ephinda kabini.

Ukuqinisekisa olu phuhliso, iingxelo zangoDisemba 25 zikhankanye ukuba, ngokuhambelana nephulo elithi “Guardians of Prosperity”, iinkampani zilungiselela ukubuyisela imisebenzi ecaleni kwendlela esuka empuma ukuya entshona edlula kuLwandle oluBomvu. Ziqulunqa izicwangciso zokudlula ngokukhawuleza kweqela lokuqala leenqanawa, kuxhomekeke ekubeni kunokwenzeka na ukusebenza.

Abahlalutyi bakholelwa ukuba esi sigqibo sinokutshintsha uqikelelo lwangaphambili lokunqongophala komthamo emva kukaMatshi, nto leyo enokunyusa isantya sokulungelelaniswa kwakhona komthamo wokuhambisa.

Ngelixa bevavanya impembelelo ethe ngqo yesi sigqibo, iinkampani zigxininise ukuzibophelela kwazo ekuqikeleleni kwangaphambili kwabathengi kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kwekhonkco lokubonelela ngeenkonzo. Nangona kunjalo, baqaphele ukuba nangona kukho amanyathelo okhuseleko akhoyo ngoku, umngcipheko uwonke kulo mmandla awukapheliswa. Iinkampani zithe, ukuba ukhuseleko lwabasebenzi lusengozini, ziya kuphinda zihlolisise imeko kwaye ziqalise izicwangciso zokutshintsha indlela.

Emva kwezi ndaba, nge-25 kaDisemba, zonke iikhontrakthi zexesha elizayo zeFreight Index (Euro Route) ziye zehla kakhulu, apho iikhontrakthi zehla ngaphezulu kwe-8%.

Amaziko amaninzi abone ukwehla kwemvakalelo yokunyuka kwexabiso kwimarike, okubonakala kukwehla komdla ovulelekileyo kuzo zonke iikhontrakthi kunye nokuncipha okubonakalayo kwezikhundla. Nangona kuvaliwe ngelahleko encinci, amanani aphezulu okurhweba abonisa umahluko omkhulu kwimarike, okwenza kube nzima ukubona kwangaphambili umkhwa kwixesha elifutshane.

Ukuze kulumkiswe abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike, iShanghai Futures Exchange ikhuphe izibhengezo ezibini ngoDisemba 25, ilungisa umlinganiselo wemali engenayo kunye nemida yamaxabiso kwiikhontrakthi zexesha elizayo zeFreight Index (Euro Route). La manyathelo ajolise ekukhumbuzeni abarhwebi ukuba bahlole ngobulumko impembelelo yexesha elifutshane yeziganeko ezingalindelekanga kumaxabiso empahla ethunyelwayo kwaye bazibandakanye kwiimarike zexesha elizayo ngolawulo olunengqiqo lwesikhundla.

Emva kokubuyela umva kancinci, ngoDisemba 26, isivumelwano sexesha elizayo seFreight Index (Euro Route) sazinza saza saqala kwakhona ukunyuka, safikelela kumda wemihla ngemihla ngokunyuka kwe-16.99%.

Uhlalutyo lwabahlalutyi lugxininisa imfuneko yokujonga ukusebenza kakuhle kwemisebenzi yokupheleka kuLwandle oluBomvu, ukulahleka okunokwenzeka kokusebenza kakuhle kokudlula xa kuthelekiswa namanqanaba aqhelekileyo, kunye nokuba iindleko zomshuwalense ezandisiweyo ziya kudluliselwa na kubathumeli abasezantsi.

Phakathi kophuhliso oluqhubekayo, ukusukela nge-25 kaDisemba, akukho zinqwelo zimbi eziye zalandela ekuqaliseni iindlela zoLwandle oluBomvu. Ngokwedatha evela kwiYihailan, ukuhanjiswa kweenqanawa zekhonteyina ngeMandeb Strait kuye kwehla kakhulu ukusukela nge-15 kaDisemba, apho inani leenqanawa kunye nomthamo weetoni nganye nganye uncipha kakhulu.

Ukukhetha indlela ende ejikeleze iCape of Good Hope, nangona ithatha ixesha elide, akubizi mali, ngokungafaniyo neSuez Canal, ebiza irhafu. I-Suez Canal Authority ibike ukuba malunga neenqanawa ezingama-23,000 zidlule kulo mjelo ngo-2022, zivelisa malunga ne-$8 yeebhiliyoni kwingeniso yerhafu. Ngomyinge werhafu ye-$347,000 ngenqanawa nganye, le ndleko iyaqhubeka nokunyuka minyaka le.

Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba iSuez Canal inegalelo elikhulu kuqoqosho lwase-Egypt, nto leyo eyenza malunga nesithathu semveliso iyonke yezoqoqosho yelizwe. Impembelelo epheleleyo kwezoqoqosho yokuphazamiseka kwakutshanje komjelo isaza kuhlolwa.

Isiganeko sangaphambili sokuvaleka kweSuez Canal sibonakalise ukuba sesichengeni korhwebo lwehlabathi kunye neekhonkco zokubonelela. Nangona impembelelo yohlaselo lweenqanawa lwakutshanje incinci kunesiganeko sangaphambili, iindawo ezibalulekileyo ezifana neSuez Canal kunye nePanama Canal, ukuba ziyaphazamiseka, zisenokuba nefuthe elikhulu kurhwebo lwehlabathi.

Abahlalutyi bathi ukutshintsha indlela yeenqanawa ezijikeleza incam esemazantsi eAfrika kubiza iindleko ezongezelelweyo ze-$1 yezigidi ngohambo ngalunye kunye nexesha lokuhamba leentsuku ezisi-7-10. Oku kukhokelele ekutshintsheni okubonakalayo kwamaxabiso eoyile yamazwe ngamazwe.

Njengoko kuxeliwe yiShanghai Securities News, amaxabiso eoyile yamazwe ngamazwe abuyele esiqhelweni ukusukela oko uxinzelelo loLwandle oluBomvu lwanyuka. Ioyile ekrwada yeWTI inyuke phantse nge-7% ukuya kwi-$73.49 ngebhereli, ngelixa i-Brent crude nayo inyuke phantse nge-7% ukuya kwi-$78.89 ngebhereli ukususela ekupheleni kukaDisemba 22, zombini zifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu ukusukela nge-5 kaDisemba.

Nangona kunjalo, xa kuthelekiswa nempembelelo yengxabano phakathi kwe-Israel nePalestina ngo-Okthobha, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile kubonisa inqanaba eliphezulu lokuqiqa kwemarike. Nangona ukuvalwa koLwandle oluBomvu kunokunyusa iindleko zothutho kwezinye iinqanawa zeoyile, akuzichaphazelanga kakhulu iziseko zemarike yeoyile. Ekubeni iYemen ne-Israel zingengawo amazwe avelisa ioyile, ukuphazamiseka akunakwenzeka ukuba kuchaphazele imveliso yeoyile kuMbindi Mpuma. Ukongeza, uninzi lwezokuthunyelwa kweoyile kuMbindi Mpuma zixhomekeke kwiStrait of Hormuz, ngoko ke lo gama nje loo ndlela yokuthumela ioli ihlala ivuliwe, kufuneka kubekho impembelelo encinci kwiziseko zemarike yeoyile yehlabathi kunye neendlela zorhwebo.

Abahlalutyi bacebisa ukuba ngokwembono yexesha eliphakathi, njengoko imeko isondela kwisisombululo, ukuncipha koxinzelelo kwikota yokuqala yonyaka ozayo kulindeleke ukuba kuzolise kancinci kancinci impembelelo elandelayo kwimixokelelwane yokubonelela, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla, kunye namaxabiso eemveliso.

Ukuqukumbela, uphuhliso lwezopolitiko kuLwandle oluBomvu luye lwabangela utshintsho kwishishini lokuthumela ngenqanawa, abanye abathwali beenqwelo-mafutha bejonge ukuqalisa kwakhona kweendlela. Nangona esi sigqibo sinokutshintsha ulindelo lwemarike yangaphambili, impembelelo iyonke kurhwebo lwehlabathi, amakhonkco okubonelela, kunye namaxabiso eoyile ayikacaci. Abahlalutyi bacebisa ukuba kulumke, begxininisa isidingo sovavanyo oluchanekileyo lokuphazamiseka kwexesha elifutshane kunye nokuthatha inxaxheba okunengqiqo kwimarike yexesha elizayo.